Coinbase Stock $COIN Q2'24 Forecast (2024)

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As we conclude June and move into Q3’24 my Q2’24 Forecast is ready for your discerning attention, especially if you are a COIN 0.00%↑ Coinbase shareholder.

Coinbase Stock $COIN Q2'24 Forecast (1)

I wish I had a better forecast to share, something in the $1.8-$2.0B range for revenue but, sadly Q2’24 has been a slower quarter for Coinbase as it has been for much of the crypto market.

I now expect Q2’24 Revenue to come in at the $1.38-$1.42B range, which is nothing to sneezes at. Lower numbers than Q1 are mostly due to lower trading volume from consumers as the crypto prices dipped below Q1 highs. For Q2 I am being more conservative than the consensus analysts but, we are not far apart at all, unlike the past few quarters where my forecast was +45-70% more bullish and more accurate than the average analyst.

Q2 Coinbase Earnings Date Aug 1, 2024 - Aug 5, 2024

My EPS $0.91 vs Analysts $1.04

My Revenue EST 1.388B vs Analysts $1.41B

ZOOM OUT

Highly recommended that you Zoom-out to a longer timeframe when looking at crypto and Coinbase for a much healthier perspective in this volatile market.

Coinbase Stock $COIN Q2'24 Forecast (2)

As shareholders we like to see growth Q/Q quarter after quarter but, such growth is seldom linear and not always sustainable. A -15% drop in revenue Q/Q is not nothing but, also not a big deal in crypto. Given the massive growth last three quarters I would consider Q2 a pause before the breakout Q3 and Q4 to end the year.

To make us all feel a bit better here is your daily dose of Hopeium!

Coinbase Stock $COIN Q2'24 Forecast (3)

Without any data just my experience in crypto and a bit of hopeium I would not be surprised to see $1.6-2.1B in revenue in Q3’24 and something along the lines of $2.5-3.0B in Q4’24 which would be massive for both crypto and Coinbase shares. High end of this would result in 60% greater revenue for 2024 than analysts expect, and with that a healthy bump in multiple expansion for $COIN.

Rest of the market expects a horizontal 2024 where Q/Q is about the same rest of the year ( as you can see in the chart below), which in my opinion misses the traditional trend in the BTC halving years as well as plethora of positive catalysts both on the horizon and currently in effect.

Coinbase Stock $COIN Q2'24 Forecast (4)

With the accretion of several positive outcomes in law and politics on top of the approved Ethereum $ETH-USD ETF in the U.S., there is a confluence of of tailwinds from many directions; which I expect to propel us forward into to the year’s end.

Many also seem to forget that the BTC halving which took place in April tends to take time to be felt in the markets ( 6-12 months) as the BTC supply sold by miners dwindles in search of a new price equilibrium given the 50% reduction in mined BTC available for sale. New break even price for average Bitcoin miner is $80K per coin, so assume that the current sales negatively impacting the price is non miners and old supply; such as Mt. Gox $8B sale finally emerging from bankruptcy recover as well as many other 2021 centralized bankrupt recoveries, and U.S. and German governments selling ceased illegally gotten BTC, in the hundreds of millions of dollars of BTC in tandem for some reason.

Coinbase assets not being accounted correctly

Accounting rule change now allows Coinbase to mark their unrealized gains in crypto assets mark to market instead of previous rule that forced them to show only losses and never gains, to their assets. Still many financial institutions are slow to update about $2.75 extra EPS in the last quarter to their result due to this rule change. ( My ongoing battle with Robinhood to correctly show Coin EPS. ) As you can see in the shareholders letter below fully diluted EPS was $4.4 last quarter and yet, many institutions are saying it was $1.65 instead, hanging on to a past accounting rule that was unfair to crypto asset holders.

Coinbase Stock $COIN Q2'24 Forecast (5)

Ethereum ETF is about to launch in the USA, which I expect to be positive for the price of ETH and to add trading volume to Coinbase on top of custodial fees COIN will get as they did from BTC ETF. Below is a rainbow chart from Plan B, which tells us we are in the “Still Cheap” range, and IMO about to head into the red territory in the next 6 -12 months, where both ETH and BTC will likely see new all time highs. ETH’s unique deflationary model with an influx of demand from ETFs might surprise everyone even the die hard bulls to the up side.

Coinbase Stock $COIN Q2'24 Forecast (6)

And now your moment of ZEN.

Looking at ETH we are not even at new ATH yet after massive upgrades sine 2021 and on the eve of an ETF. LFG. Brace yourself!

Coinbase Stock $COIN Q2'24 Forecast (7)
Coinbase Stock $COIN Q2'24 Forecast (2024)
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