Will Russia Intervene to Save Maduro?
The possibility of Russian intervention to support Nicolas Maduro, the embattled president of Venezuela, has once again come into focus. In 2019, the United States backed an opposition leader seeking to overthrow Maduro, but Russia stood firm, providing diplomatic and military support to Maduro's government, which is considered Moscow's most crucial partner in Latin America.
Maduro's survival during that crisis, when Juan Guaido's military uprising failed, was a significant relief for Russia and a setback for the US, which deemed Maduro illegitimate. US President Donald Trump, during his first term, recognized Guaido as Venezuela's interim president in January 2019.
Today, the situation is different, but the US is intensifying its pressure on Maduro. It has established a substantial military presence in the Caribbean, deploying the USS Gerald R Ford, the world's largest warship, and conducting strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels, resulting in numerous casualties.
US officials have cited a 2020 drug-crimes indictment against Maduro, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio labeling him a 'fugitive from American justice.' In August, the US doubled the bounty for information leading to his capture to $50 million.
In a CBS interview released in November, Trump downplayed the possibility of a US military conflict with Venezuela but hinted at Maduro's imminent downfall, stating, 'I think so, yeah.'
Maduro is reportedly seeking support from Russia again, but analysts warn that if the US makes a concerted effort to remove him, Russia's ability to prevent this is limited.
Mark Galeotti, a Russia analyst and author, stated, 'To be blunt, Russia can do little if the US is determined to remove Maduro, beyond diplomatic overtures.'
The Washington Post reported that Maduro wrote a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin, requesting the restoration of previously purchased Sukhoi warplanes and other military support to bolster Venezuela's air defenses. The letter was to be delivered by Venezuela's transportation minister, who traveled to Moscow in mid-October.
While the letter's delivery status is unclear, a large Russian Il-76 transport plane arrived in Caracas in late October, according to FlightData24. The aircraft's cargo remains unknown.
Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that Moscow denounces the use of excessive military force in anti-drug operations and supports Venezuela's leadership in defending its national sovereignty. She also mentioned that Russia is 'ready to react appropriately to their requests, considering existing and potential threats.'
A new strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Venezuela, signed during Maduro's visit to Moscow in May, came into effect after Putin's signature. However, such agreements often lack specific details.
Experts suggest that Russia's military presence in the Western Hemisphere has been largely symbolic, demonstrating Moscow's ability to project power beyond its borders, which was limited after the 1991 Soviet collapse.
In 2018, two Russian strategic bombers with nuclear capabilities landed in Venezuela, and in 2024, two Russian naval ships docked there before an election that extended Maduro's rule, denounced by the US as a sham. During the 2019 crisis, Moscow acknowledged the presence of military personnel on the ground.
Analyst Vladimir Rouvinski wrote that the 'first continuous presence of Russian military personnel in the Western Hemisphere' since the 1990s withdrawal from Cuba was a clear sign of the Kremlin's determination to keep Venezuela within its sphere of influence.
Rouvinski also noted that Russia's support for Maduro included blocking a US-backed UN Security Council resolution. However, the crisis in Venezuela exposed the limitations of Russian policy, such as financial resource shortages in Latin America.
Russia's resources, both financial and military, are more stretched than in 2019, when Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, diverting a significant portion of the country's military personnel and assets. Even without direct military action in Europe, Russia's distance from Venezuela would be a significant constraint on substantial support.
Oleg Ignatov, a senior Russia analyst, believes that if the US seriously considers regime change in Venezuela by force, Russia is unlikely to provide any assistance. He attributes this to geographical and logistical constraints.
The US has sent mixed signals about potential strikes within Venezuela, with Trump suggesting further land-based actions but later denying media reports of such plans. The removal of Maduro would be a significant blow to Russia, potentially depriving it of a crucial foothold in Latin America, similar to the ouster of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, which weakened Russia's influence in the Middle East.
Russia's investment in Venezuela's oil production, which holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, further emphasizes the geopolitical importance of maintaining Maduro's regime. US sanctions, however, mean both countries are seeking to sell to the same buyers, such as China.
Despite the ties, Moscow may view the growing US pressure on Venezuela as a strategic opportunity to divert attention from Ukraine, reducing the likelihood of additional pressure on Russia to halt the invasion. Putin's Kremlin might even see Maduro's departure as a silver lining, strengthening its claim that the West, not Russia, is the enemy of the Global South.
In conclusion, the situation surrounding Maduro's future is complex, with Russia's support contingent on the US's actions and the geopolitical calculus at play.
